Carbon credit sector faces wave of market shakeouts

The carbon credit sector is undergoing a significant market shakeout driven by rising demand for high-integrity projects and stricter standards such as the Core Carbon Principles, pushing prices upward—BloombergNEF projects costs rising to $60 per ton by 2030 and $104 per ton by 2050 if technology-based removals dominate[1][5][3]. Issuances surged to 77 million credits in Q2 2025, up 39% from Q1, signaling renewed market confidence, but this growth is accompanied by volatility and a rapid shift toward digital infrastructure and tokenization to enhance transparency and trust[1][3][7]. Market implications include a bifurcation between high-cost, quality-driven credits and cheaper, lower-integr

The carbon credit sector is currently experiencing significant market shakeouts driven by growing demands for credit integrity and stricter governance. Experts highlight that while supply is projected to increase 20- to 35-fold by 2050, prices could soar to $104 per ton of CO₂ equivalent if high-quality, technology-based removals dominate, reflecting a market split between volume and integrity[1][5]. Industry voices emphasize that recent reforms—such as the adoption of Core Carbon Principles and enhanced transparency—are critical to restoring trust after past greenwashing scandals and enabling the market’s rebound toward a potential $1.1 trillion valuation by mid-century[2][7].

Carbon credits soared 39% in Q2 issuances year-on-year, with 77 million credits issued in Q2 2025 compared to 67.5 million in Q2 2024, signaling a sharp rebound in market activity and renewed investor confidence—despite lingering concerns over project integrity and governance[1]. Among listed players, Carbon Streaming Corp. saw its stock plunge from a 52-week high of CA$15 to just CA$0.50, prompting a major board and management overhaul led by investor Marin Katusa, who now serves as a technical and financial adviser to “benefit all shareholders” during the shakeout[2]. Meanwhile, prices for benchmark carbon offsets traded on Xpansiv’s CBL

The carbon credit sector is undergoing a significant technical reset marked by a wave of market shakeouts driven by stricter integrity standards and rising prices. Issuances reached 77 million credits in Q2 2025—a 39% increase from Q1—and the market faces a surge in supply projected to grow 20- to 35-fold by 2050, with prices expected to rise to $60 per ton by 2030 and $104 per ton by 2050 if technology-based removals dominate[1][5]. This technical reshaping, propelled by Core Carbon Principles enforcing credit quality and the rise of digital infrastructure for issuance and trading, is intensifying market polarization: high-integrity credits commanding premium prices amid skepticism and potential oversupply

The carbon credit sector is undergoing substantial regulatory tightening as governments and international bodies enforce stricter standards to restore market integrity and trust. Key recent measures include the adoption of the **Core Carbon Principles (CCP)** by the Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market, enhanced disclosure requirements under California's AB 1305, the EU's Green Claims Directive, and important clarifications finalized in **Article 6 at COP 29**[7]. These reforms aim to ensure carbon credits genuinely represent emission reductions, with the US and UK also issuing guiding principles for high-integrity carbon markets to curb greenwashing and fraud[2][7].

Carbon credit issuances spiked to 77 million credits in Q2 2025, a 39% jump from Q1 and 14% higher than Q2 2024, as the sector undergoes a dramatic reset driven by integrity-focused reforms and shifting buyer preferences—Verra’s market share has dropped to 28.09% while BioCarbon Standard surged to 21.16% in Q3, reflecting a rebalancing toward projects with stricter methodologies[1][9]. High-integrity credits now command a premium, with BloombergNEF projecting prices could reach $60 per ton by 2030 and $104 per ton by 2050 if technology-based removals dominate supply, but analysts warn that a flood of

The carbon credit sector is undergoing a major shakeout as market leaders lose ground to emerging registries: Verra’s share of new issuances dropped to 28.09% in Q3 2025, down from 39.2% two years ago, while BioCarbon Standard surged to a record 21.16% driven by large Latin American REDD+ projects. “The competitive landscape is shifting fast—buyers are rewarding high-integrity, regionally relevant projects over legacy players,” said a market analyst at Sylvera, highlighting a broader rebalancing in both supply and buyer preference.

The carbon credit sector is undergoing significant competitive shifts marked by a sharp market reset favoring high-integrity projects. In 2025, issuances surged to 77 million credits in Q2 alone, a 39% increase from Q1, signaling renewed confidence among top players like BioCarbon Standard which increased its issuance share to 21.16%, while longtime leader Verra’s share declined to 28.09%[1][7]. This evolving landscape is driving up credit prices, with projections suggesting costs could reach $60 per ton by 2030 and $104 by 2050, benefiting technology-based removals such as direct air capture that are set to capture 21% of supply by mid-century[1][5].

The carbon credit sector is undergoing significant market shakeouts driven by a sharp divide between high-integrity and low-quality credits, with expert analysis highlighting rising prices and stricter governance as key trends. BloombergNEF forecasts carbon credit supply could surge 20- to 35-fold by 2050, with prices potentially reaching $104 per ton if technology-based removals dominate, while lower-quality markets might see prices capped at $69 per ton but with diminished environmental impact[1][5]. Industry experts like Annette Nazareth of the Integrity Council emphasize the critical role of “high-integrity carbon credits” in mobilizing private finance to reduce billions of tons of emissions, reflecting ongoing reform efforts that aim to restore market confidence after years of greenwashing allegations[

The carbon credit sector is undergoing significant market shakeouts driven by rising demand for high-integrity credits and stricter governance, with average prices expected to climb to $60 per ton by 2030 and $104 per ton by 2050 if technology-based removals dominate, according to BloombergNEF projections[1][5]. Experts highlight that reforms such as the adoption of Core Carbon Principles and enhanced verification standards are crucial to restoring market confidence after recent volatility and allegations of greenwashing, positioning the sector for potential trillion-dollar valuation by 2050[2][3][7]. Industry analysts stress that while growth prospects are strong, the future market will be shaped by a divide between volume-driven low-quality credits and integrity-driven supplies with higher costs and real

Consumers and the public are reacting with growing skepticism to the carbon credit sector’s recent wave of market shakeouts, as high-profile project collapses and greenwashing allegations have eroded trust. A recent Guardian report cited Sir David King, former UK chief scientific adviser, warning that “unless you do this [reform], you’re out of business,” echoing concerns from buyers who now demand higher transparency and integrity. BloombergNEF data shows a 7% year-on-year increase in credit retirements in early 2025, but public sentiment remains cautious, with many questioning the real climate impact behind offset claims.

## Live News Update: Carbon Credit Sector Faces Wave of Market Shakeouts **Breaking:** Public and consumer skepticism intensified in Q3 2025 as controversy over "greenwashing" and the integrity of carbon credits continues to roil the voluntary carbon market, despite a record 128.54 million credits retired so far this year—up from 120.61 million in the same period last year[7]. A recent Sylvera report notes that while professional services firms are increasingly favoring cookstove projects (about 70% of their 2025 retirements), renewable energy credits have seen a steep decline in demand, especially among tech and financial sectors, reflecting a lack of consumer confidence in certain project types[7]. “The marke

The global carbon credit sector is undergoing a major shakeout as nations such as Indonesia, Kenya, and Honduras impose new taxes, regulations, and trade restrictions to capture more value from carbon offset projects within their borders, treating carbon credits like national resources akin to gold or lithium[2]. This regulatory tightening coincides with a broader market reset that BloombergNEF projects will increase carbon credit supply 20- to 35-fold by 2050, with prices possibly rising to $104 per ton of CO₂e if high-integrity, technology-based removals dominate[1][5]. Internationally, market reforms led by bodies like the Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market and digital infrastructure advances are helping restore investor confidence, aiming to enhance credit quality and